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BTS releases first-quarter 2005 Air Travel Price Index

USA: Airline Index down 4.3 percent from first quarter 2004; Top increase in Honolulu, top decrease in Cincinnati

The Air Travel Price Index (ATPI) fell 4.3 percent in the first quarter of 2005 from the same period in 2004…

The Air Travel Price Index (ATPI) fell 4.3 percent in the first quarter of 2005 from the same period in 2004 (Table 1), marking the lowest first-quarter fare index of any January-to-March period since 1999 (Table 2), the U.S. Department of Transportation`s Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) reported today.



BTS, a part of the Research and Innovative Technology Administration, reported that the year-to-year decline in the first-quarter level to 103.9 (1995 1st quarter = 100) was the third consecutive quarter in which the ATPI was lower than the same period a year earlier.



The largest year-to-year fare index increase for the first quarter among the 85 largest airline markets, ranked by passengers, was 11.5 percent in Honolulu, HI, followed by San Juan, PR, Oakland, CA, Burbank/Glendale/Pasadena, CA, and Phoenix (Table 4). The biggest year-to-year fare index decrease was 22.7 percent for itineraries originating in Cincinnati. Other top fare decreases were recorded in Charleston, SC, Philadelphia, Richmond, VA, and Charlotte, NC.



The largest 10-year first-quarter fare index increase was 111.3 percent in Lihue (Kauai), HI. Three of the top five fare increases over this period took place at Hawaiian airports. Anchorage, AK, and Burbank/Glendale/Pasadena, CA, were the non-Hawaiian airports with the top fare increases (Table 5). The biggest first-quarter 10-year fare index decrease was 22.1 percent for itineraries originating in Manchester, NH, followed by Raleigh/Durham, NC, Providence, RI, Philadelphia and Hartford, CT.



The ATPI is a quarterly measure of changes in airfares since the first quarter of 1995 for itineraries on U.S. carriers beginning in the United States. The ATPI was released for the first time in March 2004. The numbers are not adjusted for inflation.



The ATPI in the first quarter of 2005 was 11.1 percent below the level of the first quarter of 2001 when the index reached its highest point of any January-to-March period since the period covered by the data beginning in 1995 (Table 1, 2).



The first-quarter 2005 index rose 1.6 percent from the fourth quarter 2004 level (Table 3). Quarter-to-quarter changes may be affected by seasonal factors.



Additional information about the ATPI, including indexes for foreign-origin itineraries and the top 85 air travel markets based on originating passengers, can be found on the BTS website, http://www.bts.gov/xml/atpi/src/index.xml. The second-quarter 2005 ATPI is scheduled for release on Oct. 26, 2005.



The ATPI series are computed using a price index methodology similar to that used by other federal statistical agencies. Although the ATPI is computed using a tested index methodology, the effective application of this methodology to the airlines` data is still under development and it is considered a research series at this time.



Table 1: Percentage Changes to 2005 in the Air Travel Price Index, from First Quarter Each Year Since 1995 (U.S.-Origin Itineraries, First Quarter to First Quarter)

Percentage change to first quarter of 2005

Since first quarter of …

Duration in years

-4.3

2004

1

-3.8

2003

2

-4.0

2002

3

-11.1

2001

4

-2.1

2000

5

1.7

1999

6

-0.6

1998

7

1.9

1997

8

5.2

1996

9

3.9

1995

10

SOURCE: BTS, based on calculations

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