HIP's six-month growth rate, which has historically confirmed the turning points in U.S. hotel business activity, posted a negative rate of 0.6% in August, following a positive rate of 0.7% in July.
DURHAM, NEW HAMPSHIRE USA – Business activity in U.S. hotels declined to a reading of 112.5 in August according to the latest reading of the Hotel Industry’s Pulse (HIP) indicator. e-forecasting.com‘s HIP – a composite indicator that gauges monthly overall business conditions in the U.S. hotel industry – fell by 0.5% in August after a decline of 0.4% in July. The index is set to equal 100 in 2005.
HIP’s six-month growth rate, which has historically confirmed the turning points in U.S. hotel business activity, posted a negative rate of 0.6% in August, following a positive rate of 0.7% in July. This compares to a long-term annual growth rate of 3%, the same as the 40-year average annual growth rate of the industry’s gross domestic product.
The probability of the hotel industry being in recession, which is detected in real-time from HIP with the help of sophisticated statistical techniques, registered 30.6% in August, up from 21.2% reported in July. When this recession-warning gauge is near or passes the threshold probability of 50%, the U.S. hotel industry has entered a recession.
“The latest data, including revisions, show that business activity for US hoteliers is on a declining trend in the last five months” said Maria Sogard, CEO of eforecasting.com.”
Only one of the three demand and supply indicators of current business activity that constitute Hotel Industry’s Pulse (HIP) Index had a positive contribution to its change in August: Spending on Hotels; The two of the three indicators of current business activity which had a negative or zero contribution to HIP’s change in August were Hotel Jobs; Hotel Capacity;
“In the last twelve months – August 2013 to August 2014 – overall economic activity, measured by e-forecasting.com’s monthly U.S. GDP – rose by 1.8%. Over the same period, economic activity in U.S. Hotels, measured by HIP, increased by 2.1%” Maria added.
Vicky is the co-founder of TravelDailyNews Media Network where she is the Editor-in Chief. She is also responsible for the daily operation and the financial policy. She holds a Bachelor's degree in Tourism Business Administration from the Technical University of Athens and a Master in Business Administration (MBA) from the University of Wales.
She has many years of both academic and industrial experience within the travel industry. She has written/edited numerous articles in various tourism magazines.
