Hotel industry real-time indicator –hip- report on current business activity. HIP's six-month growth rate, which has historically confirmed the turning points in U.S. hotel business activity, posted a positive rate of 1.1% in September, following a positive rate of 1.9% in August.
DURHAM, NEW HAMPSHIRE USA – Business activity in U.S. hotels declined to a reading of 113.9 in September according to the latest reading of the Hotel Industry’s Pulse (HIP) indicator. e-forecasting.com‘s HIP – a composite indicator that gauges monthly overall business conditions in the U.S. hotel industry – fell by 0.1% in September after a flat performance with a change reading of 0% in August. The index is set to equal 100 in 2005.
HIP’s six-month growth rate, which has historically confirmed the turning points in U.S. hotel business activity, posted a positive rate of 1.1% in September, following a positive rate of 1.9% in August. This compares to a long-term annual growth rate of 3%, the same as the 40-year average annual growth rate of the industry’s gross domestic product.
The probability of the hotel industry being in recession, which is detected in real-time from HIP with the help of sophisticated statistical techniques, registered 21.6 % in September, up from 16.9% reported in August. When this recession-warning gauge is near or passes the threshold probability of 50%, the U.S. hotel industry has entered a recession.
“The latest data, including revisions, show that business activity for US hoteliers has stalled in the last six months” said Maria Sogard, CEO of eforecasting.com. “The six-month growth rate, which confirms recessions when it crosses the zero line, has steadily declined from a peak reading of 6% in January to a 1.1% in September,” Maria added.
Only one of the three demand and supply indicators of current business activity that constitute Hotel Industry’s Pulse (HIP) Index had a positive contribution to its change in September: Spending on Hotels. The two of the three indicators of current business activity which had a negative or zero contribution to HIP’s change in September were Hotel Jobs and Hotel Capacity
“In the last twelve months – September 2013 to September 2014 – overall economic activity, measured by e-forecasting.com’s monthly U.S. GDP – rose by 1.6%. Over the same period, economic activity in U.S. Hotels, measured by HIP, increased by 2.8%” Maria added.
Vicky is the co-founder of TravelDailyNews Media Network where she is the Editor-in Chief. She is also responsible for the daily operation and the financial policy. She holds a Bachelor's degree in Tourism Business Administration from the Technical University of Athens and a Master in Business Administration (MBA) from the University of Wales.
She has many years of both academic and industrial experience within the travel industry. She has written/edited numerous articles in various tourism magazines.
