Analysis of flight data reported in Preparing for Take Off shows increased demand is met with increased capacity in such a way that these two factors largely cancel each other out across most destinations. Paired with a decline in fuel prices, though, and consumers should see slightly lower air ticket prices to most North American and European destinations in 2015.
BELLEVUE, WASH. – Expedia, Inc., in partnership with the Airlines Reporting Corporation (ARC), released a new white paper, Preparing for Take-Off: Air Travel Trends 2015, that analyzes a comprehensive set of global air travel data showcasing findings for travelers and those in the airline industry. This report represents analysis by Expedia, Inc.’s own data and data provided by Airlines Reporting Corporation, as well as other credible industry sources.
Specifically, Preparing for Take-Off: Air Travel Trends 2015 analyzes:
- Potential price changes in airfare globally for 2015
- The best time to buy airline tickets, based on historical averages
- Differentiating value between economy and premium class tickets
“The combination of increased demand met by with increased capacity, coupled with lower fuel prices means one thing: It’s good to be a traveler in 2015,” said Greg Schulze, senior vice president, Global Tour & Transport, Expedia, Inc. “Our intent is that travel hacks coming straight from the Expedia air team, such as booking your hotel and flight together as a package to save money, will help make sure travelers know when to book, how to buy, and where to go.”
Preparing for Take-Off: Air Travel Trends 2015 was months in development. The collaboration between ARC and Expedia gave both organizations a rich, unique data set to analyze.
“We were delighted to collaborate with Expedia on this important study as part of ARC’s ongoing cooperative data program with customers and partners,” said Chuck Thackston, managing director of Enterprise Information Management, Airlines Reporting Corporation. “Though several of the results in this detailed study confirmed ARC’s earlier findings, Expedia went deeper with their own expertise and data to produce a well-rounded document.”
Flight Prices to Expect in 2015
Analysis of flight data reported in Preparing for Take Off shows increased demand is met with increased capacity in such a way that these two factors largely cancel each other out across most destinations. Paired with a decline in fuel prices, though, and consumers should see slightly lower air ticket prices to most North American and European destinations in 2015.
That said, in the APAC market, due to increased demand from travelers and a limited supply on the carrier side, travelers should expect a rise in ticket prices in 2015.
Internationally, and most notably in Europe, the rising trend of low cost airlines continues to drive ticket prices lower due in part to the unbundling of services, thus prompting some of the legacy carriers to follow suit.
|
Expedia North America Average Ticket Price Forecast |
||
|
2015 |
2015 Jan-Apr |
|
|
Destination |
YoY ATP Forecast |
YoY Capacity |
|
Las Vegas |
-4.4% |
5.6% |
|
New York |
-1.7% |
6.6% |
|
Orlando |
-1.8% |
7.4% |
|
Los Angeles |
1.3% |
5.9% |
|
Chicago |
-1.9% |
5.1% |
|
San Francisco |
2.2% |
3.7% |
|
Cancun |
-1.3% |
15.2% |
|
Washington |
-6.7% |
5.3% |
|
Boston |
1.6% |
2.1% |
|
Miami |
-1.0% |
7.9% |
|
Denver |
-4.8% |
-0.1% |
|
Phoenix |
-1.9% |
5.0% |
|
Seattle |
-2.1% |
13.8% |
|
Dallas |
-11.2% |
14.0% |
|
Atlanta |
0.3% |
1.0% |
|
Fort Lauderdale |
-3.1% |
5.9% |
|
Tampa |
-5.9% |
9.0% |
|
San Diego |
-4.6% |
5.3% |
|
Newark |
0.0% |
2.8% |
|
Houston |
-4.5% |
0.9% |
|
London |
4.5% |
4.9% |
|
Paris |
0.4% |
2.4% |
|
Rome |
6.0% |
-5.8% |
Sources: Expedia Internal Analysis, based on data from ARC, Diio Mi, and Expedia. Top city destinations based on tickets booked. ATP predictions are based on round-trip economy fares and inclusive of package tickets.
|
Expedia Europe Average Ticket Price Forecast |
||
|
2015 |
2015 Jan-Apr |
|
|
Destination |
YoY ATP Forecast |
YoY Capacity |
|
London |
-4.6% |
5.2% |
|
Paris |
-1.5% |
4.8% |
|
Munich |
-2.7% |
2.0% |
|
Berlin |
-4.4% |
6.7% |
|
Rome |
-12.8% |
10.5% |
|
Istanbul |
-0.6% |
10.2% |
|
Barcelona |
-3.0% |
4.7% |
|
Copenhagen |
-1.5% |
2.5% |
|
Madrid |
-5.8% |
12.9% |
|
Amsterdam |
-4.8% |
9.1% |
|
New York |
3.3% |
1.9% |
|
Las Vegas |
12.6% |
-9.3% |
|
Miami |
5.9% |
12.7% |
Sources: Expedia Internal Analysis, based on data from ARC, Diio Mi, and Expedia. Top city destinations based on tickets booked. ATP predictions are based on round-trip economy fares and inclusive of package tickets.
|
Expedia APAC Average Ticket Price Forecast |
||
|
2015 |
2015 Jan-Apr |
|
|
Destination |
YoY ATOP Forecast |
YoY Capacity |
|
Hong Kong |
0.0% |
3.0% |
|
Seoul |
3.7% |
7.1% |
|
Bangkok |
-0.2% |
5.1% |
|
London |
1.5% |
-1.6% |
|
Tokyo |
3.3% |
6.5% |
|
Honolulu |
-0.2% |
0.0% |
|
Los Angeles |
-3.4% |
6.6% |
|
Paris |
2.3% |
6.7% |
|
New York |
6.2% |
11.7% |
|
San Francisco |
0.6% |
4.6% |
When to Purchase Airline Tickets – How Far in Advance and What Day of Week
Fares will vary on any given route and on any given day: There are no magic algorithms for flight booking. However, a look at historical averages reveals that flight prices are traditionally driven by two distinct measures of time: day of week and number of days until the flight date.
Expedia’s analysis of its own data reveals that, by the slimmest of margins, Tuesday is holding onto its perch as the day on which air shoppers find the cheapest flights at purchase time. More important is the day of travel. International travelers who are able to leave on Thursday and return on Monday will enjoy the greatest savings on average. Domestic travelers opting for a long weekend can save up to roughly 25 percent on short-haul flights when booking a Saturday departure to Tuesday return over the more expensive Sunday departure and Monday return.
The Preparing for Take-Off analysis also shows, based on data from ARC, that on domestic routes, the lowest-priced fares should be found within 50 to 100 days of departure, while the lowest fares were found 57 days prior. Domestic flight fares tend to remain relatively stable during that 50-to-100-day window. For international routes, the lowest price fares are found farther in advance – between 150 and 225 days – while the lowest price found was 171 days prior to departure.
For routes originating and ending in North America, customers may save anywhere from US$195 to US$225 when booking flights more than three weeks ahead of departure.
Finally, booking a package deal almost always will yield greater savings; be sure to look at air tickets purchased as part of a vacation package that includes hotel and other travel services (such as rental car and/or activities). On average, travelers can save US$540 across all destinations, and even more when traveling to many popular resort destinations.
|
Package Savings for Select Markets** |
||
|
% Saved |
$ Saved |
|
|
Las Vegas |
19.4% |
$346.97 |
|
NYC |
24.4% |
$1,031.80 |
|
Cancun |
22.9% |
$942.23 |
|
London |
18.5% |
$588.55 |
|
Punta Cana, DR |
18.4% |
$774.04 |
|
Rome |
17.2% |
$499.57 |
|
Barcelona |
11.6% |
$217.55 |
|
Riviera Maya |
21.9% |
$1,019.24 |
|
Miami |
19.6% |
$496.51 |
|
Paris |
20.8% |
$898.91 |
|
Oahu |
19.5% |
$829.68 |
|
Los Cabos |
24.6% |
$950.26 |
|
Berlin |
16.7% |
$205.06 |
|
Orlando & Lake Buena Vista, FL |
19.7% |
$477.79 |
|
Los Angeles |
18.4% |
$371.45 |
|
Amsterdam |
14.8% |
$261.83 |
|
Chicago |
19.3% |
$332.18 |
|
San Francisco |
17.3% |
$392.87 |
|
San Diego |
23.8% |
$529.06 |
|
Mallorca Island |
15.6% |
$334.89 |
|
Istanbul |
12.5% |
$245.29 |
|
Maui |
26.1% |
$1,307.82 |
|
San Juan, Puerto Rico |
17.1% |
$379.53 |
|
New Orleans |
16.4% |
$329.88 |
|
Prague |
12.5% |
$189.44 |
Book Ahead for Flights to Atlanta and New York
Atlanta and New York have shown the largest advanced purchase savings. Hawaii, Mexico and the Caribbean, on the flipside, offer the slimmest savings for advance purchases. Hawaii is a notable anomaly; travelers often receive the best airfare deals when booking one to three weeks in advance. Last-minute deals are very often available, and one of the best ways to save is to book your flight at the same time as your hotel or rental car.
First Class Envy No More: Gap Between Fare Classes is Shrinking
Since the Pan-Am days, first class travel has always has always carried the perception of luxury and exclusivity. However, Expedia’s analysis of flight data also found that in some cases the difference in ticket prices for seats in premium and economy cabins is shrinking, presenting the potential opportunity for consumers to purchase more affordable premium class fares.
On some routes, the gap between ticket prices in premium and economy cabins has become negligible, creating situations where tickets purchased for seats in premium cabins provide more value than economy tickets. Put simply, first-class experiences during domestic and international air travel may not be as unattainable as once thought.
For travelers in North America, the white paper notes the gap between premium and economy cabin ticket prices is larger, creating a potential opportunity for airlines in those regions to be more aggressive and attract new paying premium-cabin customers.
Theodore is the Co-Founder and Managing Editor of TravelDailyNews Media Network; his responsibilities include business development and planning for TravelDailyNews long-term opportunities.
