2009 has been a year of considerable challenge for practically every travel service provider. As the year comes to a close, thoughts turn to the year ahead with the hope that market conditions will improve. And for some in the travel industry, market stability alone would come as welcomed relief. Not surprisingly, the results of the October 2009 travelhorizons survey, the quarterly consumer survey of 2,200 U.S. adults co-authored by Ypartnership and the U.S. Travel Association, suggest that "value" will continue to be in vogue in 2010. According to the survey, 53 percent of all U.S. households are planning at least one leisure trip between now and April 2010, down slightly from the 56 percent who stated the same intention in October 2008.
Concerns about "the household budget" remain the primary deterrent to future leisure travel, cited by 39 percent of those not planning a trip. However, the incidence of this concern is now at the lowest level since the question was first included in the survey. The most significant decline in expected trips is among younger members of the population, Gen X and Gen Y, while the incidence of leisure trips taken by Boomers is expected to increase. Yet, among those planning to travel, the expected average number of leisure trips that will be taken during the next six months is up to 3.0 from 2.8 in October 2008.
The outlook for business travel remains mixed, with only 18 percent of adults planning at least one business trip, including business trips to attend business meetings and conventions, between now and April of 2010, essentially unchanged from the 17 percent recorded last July. Expectations with respect to the average number of business trips provide some encouragement, however, as this number has increased steadily throughout the year, rising from an average of 3.3 in April to 4.8 in October. This average is being driven up by a relatively small percentage of the overall population of business travelers though: only 6 percent intend to take "more business trips" during the next six months, and 24 percent expect to take "fewer trips."
The overall Traveler Sentiment Index, a derivative of six different variables measured in the survey, suggests that demand for travel services is likely to be flat during the next six months.
Among the six variables from which the index is derived, only one is currently moving in a positive direction: "personal finances available for travel." The other five variables have declined from the levels recorded in July 2009, with the expected "quality of travel services," "affordability of travel" and "time available for travel" declining most.
The horizon line for the next six months does not reveal any significant change in the complexion of demand for travel services. Demand for leisure travel services will continue to fill the majority of occupied seats and rooms, with demand for business travel services remaining essentially flat. And lingering concerns about household finances underscore the need for travel service marketers to insure they continue to offer good value in order to capture their fair share. Theodore Koumelis - Tuesday, December 01, 2009