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Another disappointing year for Orlando from foreign markets
Although there are a number of data gaps, which distorts overall trends, Orlando suffered another disappointing year from its international markets in 2002, and 2003 does not look like being much better. Overseas arrivals in 2002 fell to their lowest level in at least ten years.

Thankfully, the trend in domestic tourism demand was positive, more than compensating for 2001`s drop in numbers. Leisure arrivals, which account for some 78 per cent of the total domestic count, increased by nearly 9 per cent as against an 8 per cent rise in business visitors.

The UK continues to be Orlando`s top international source, despite its 17 per cent fall, followed by Canada. Canadian arrivals fell by 15 per cent compared with a 24 per cent decrease from overseas sources. All regions experienced heavy double-digit declines. Average length of stay among overseas tourists was 8.4 nights, down from 8.7 nights in 2001 and 9.7 nights in 2000. The trend mirrored overall arrivals in the USA.

Although overseas tourists are fairly heavy users of package tours, usage has been declining in recent years. In 2002, one-third (34 per cent) opted for a package - down from 41.5 per cent in 2000. And the number of overseas visitors turning to the internet for travel information and/or booking increased from 18 per cent to 24 per cent over the two years.

The Orange County Convention Center, which is ranked third in the USA in terms of prime exhibit space behind McCormick Place in Chicago and the Las Vegas Convention Center, was very hard hit from the time of the US invasion of Iraq in March, contributing to a fall in number of events and days of convention business in the first four months of 2003.

As a result of the changing market conditions, the Orlando/Orange County Convention & Visitors Bureau (OCVB) commissioned new forecasts from Global Insight in 2003. Based on actual data supplied by DK Shifflet & Associates from its US domestic Performance Monitor, Global Insight`s forecasts pointed to growth of only 1 per cent in domestic visitor arrivals in 2003, although demand was expected to increase sharply from year-end and rise by at least 5 per cent in 2004.

Growth in overnight leisure tourism was expected to be stronger than for domestic business tourism, rising by 2.6 per cent in 2003 as against just 1.3 per cent for overnight business trips. But business tourism should show a strong rebound from 2004, Global Insight says.

International arrivals were expected to be almost flat in 2003 - showing an increase of less than 1 per cent - but Global Insight is bullish about Orlando`s prospects from this year as the cheaper dollar stimulates demand from Europe, its major source, and as the Canadian and Mexican economies follow the US recovery. After three years of falling numbers, Germany is projected to record double-digit growth in 2004 - as is Brazil - with sustained increases over the next two years. The UK`s growth will be lower, but from a much higher base. Theodore Koumelis - Friday, March 26, 2004