At the annual Prospects meeting organised by the Tourism Society, the UK Minister for Tourism, a panel of industry experts and tourism professionals came together to discuss the prospects for tourism in 2007.

Shaun Woodward MP, Minister for Creative Industries and Tourism started the evening’s proceedings with a keynote speech. Mr Woodward explained that “Tourism makes up nearly 5% of the entire UK economy and recent visitor numbers to the UK indicate that growth is up around 15% and it’s done by an industry which, mercifully, is not over-regulated.”

He went on to explain that the industry is valued and the importance is recognised by the government and that “this industry has an enormous opportunity in 2012”.

He reiterated that the Olympics offers the UK an opportunity to look at everything we do and that “it should be perfectly possible to offer high standards at little expense”.

David Edwards, Trends and Forecasting Manager at VisitBritain, predicted the UK’s global market share would continue to grow in 2007 but warned that countries such as Germany, South Africa and India all attracted visitors at a faster rate that the UK in 2006.

Positive factors for the UK’s inbound tourism include the new High Speed rail link for the channel tunnel, the Bollywood Oscars in Bradford and the Tour de France starting in London. The UNWTO expect global international tourist arrivals to increase by 4% in 2007; however factors threatening the UK’s inbound tourism in 2007 include the threat of terrorism, increases in VISA fees and ‘green’ taxes as well as the exchange rate against the dollar and yen.

David explained that the UK is the 2nd biggest generator of tourism and the potential for growth in ‘low-cost long-haul’ may contribute to our propensity to travel. Domestic tourism may also see a boost with overstretched consumer debt making holidays at home a cheaper option for many Brits along with memories of ‘marquees at Heathrow’ and the promise of another hot and dry summer.

Robert Barnard of PKF commented that the London hotel market is resilient and enjoying one of the best times ever. The Mayor’s plan for 50,000 new rooms by 2026, the impact of winning the Olympic bid and more luxury hotel development than budget will all contribute to a growth in 2007 albeit possibly at a slower rate than 2006 mainly due to increases in interest rates.

David Bailey of TRI Hospitality Consulting commented that factors affecting future demand in the provincial hotel market in 2007 include the increases in the cost of travel within the UK and the possibility of a new Bed Tax; this is widely thought of by the tourism industry as an extremely negative move which will further compound the perception of the UK as an expensive destination.

Consultant Melvin Gold ended the evening by predicting a slight slip in occupancy rates in 2007 for UK hotels but a 3% increase in average room rate. Areas of concern for 2007 included the unknown impact on the smoking ban, the increased cost of Airline Passenger Duty, EU Expansion increasing accessibility to new overseas markets. He also suggested that the possibility of a Royal Wedding in 2007 would be good for the country as it would create publicity around the world whether it happened during the year or not.