There’s one thing about national elections. They focus the minds of politicians. Just as the Italian election forced Alitalia’s future into the foreground, so a snap election in Austria has provoked a similar deadline in Vienna for that country’s national flag carrier. An unspecified portion of the government’s 42.75% holding is to be available for sale to a strategic partner, with the conditions that Austrian core shareholders must retain 25% of the equity and the airline name, the Vienna hub and most employees must remain.

That 25% shareholding (plus one share) will ensure that Austrians retain the power to veto any unpalatable major decision that the strategic partner might propose. This, like the other conditions, both reduces the value (and price) of the sale and reduces the range of likely buyers. Once the elections are over, as in Italy, reality may rear its head once again, so that, as a minimum, a new strategic partner will be given a realistic prospect of acquiring a majority holding, along with the autonomy to do what is necessary for a long term sustainable operation.

That said, you’d have to be an optimist or a speculator to be buying shares in Austrian Airlines right now. But there have been plenty of both recently, as the prospects of a well-priced sell down appeared to improve. However, like Alitalia, the value of the airline sounds much better in politicians’ estimates just before an election than it will after.

And unfortunately Austria’s government does not have the access to the sort of “miracle” that Sr Berlusconi now talks about using to secure the future of the Italian brand name.

There are however some bright features now beginning to appear. As the price of oil rapidly drops, so the operating costs of struggling airlines reduce to more manageable levels. And there are at least two potential, non-miraculous, bidders for Austrian, providing the sales team with what they like to call competitive tension in the bidding process - and a strong likelihood of a real buyer.

Austrian was for many years distinguished by its regional niche role, operating very effectively and more or less profitably within Europe. Once it ventured into long haul expansion and became a hub operator, the airline and its home airport entered a new competitive marketplace. As competition in this sector grew, the big players have become bigger, leaving a near-impossible challenge for smaller operators.

So, to have a serious chance of survival as a brand airline, operating a key role at a Vienna hub, Austrian both needs a partner and, more difficult, one which won’t cannibalise both airline and airport.

Several of the regular candidates have indicated their interest already and, although Air China’s has not been confirmed, there may be some others. Practically and managerially, it is hard to see a good fit between Austrian and an eastern European airline, whatever the price paid. A Middle East airline would derive real benefit from access to Austrian’s eastern Europe network and long haul links through Vienna, but recent events involving a possible investment by a Middle East businessman may have soured things in that direction too.

Which makes Lufthansa and Air France the short-odds favourites. The German flag has some advantages as a strategic partner, but also some natural disadvantages, if the government-prescribed requirements are maintained. The fit with a Star Alliance member is easy, yet it is hard to see the value to Lufthansa of maintaining a fourth hub, together with many competing, overlapping routes across Austrian’s network. Moreover, if Lufthansa remains true to its word and awaits an “invitation” before entering the fray, this could make things difficult in a tender process.

Air France, by contrast, could derive a massive strategic benefit from establishing a major base to the east. In that case, the main goals of the outgoing government are much more likely to be strategically consistent with the buyer’s aims. And that synergy offers the Austrian government its best negotiating tool for convincing Lufthansa to accept unpalatably punitive terms if it is to be the new partner. The leading airline in the Star Alliance would not welcome an encircling movement by its largest, SkyTeam, opponent.

There would be pain to suffer for such a move, as Star does not allow its members to leave home without paying serious alimony. But Air France would probably consider that a small price for a long term gain of immense value.

In the end, the result of this essentially nationalist airline play will be taken up at the highest levels. After the new Austrian Chancellor is elected next month, one of his first meetings will be with his German counterpart - and Austrian Airlines is sure to be high on the agenda. President Sarkozy will be keen to have a chat too.