June saw another fall in visitor numbers compared with 2007 and completes a disappointing half year for inbound tourism.  With visitors for the year to date down by 1.3% and weak forward bookings there seems little prospect of any significant improvement in trading conditions in the short term.  The economic outlook is particularly grim with the prospect of imminent recession driving consumer confidence in both Europe and the USA to record lows.

The last two weeks we have seen the Euro begin to weaken from the record highs against the Pound that has sustained the growth in European business over the last two years and it seems likely it will continue to weaken through the rest of the summer and into the autumn. With the prospect of reduced air capacity and higher travel costs this could curtail the growth in short haul city breaks in the months ahead.  

Long haul leisure business remains poor, particularly from North America, but has been bolstered by the resilience of the business travel sector. However, there are worrying signs that companies are now looking for ways to reduce business trips. 

Although it will probably have no impact on this year’s trading there is one small chink of light breaking through this gloomy landscape for export tourism and that is the recent resurgence of the US Dollar. Trading at $2.10 to the Pound  just  9 months ago it is worth $1.93 today and market sentiment has shifted to expect further improvement as it is believed that European central banks, unlike the Federal Reserve, have been slow to respond to a potential slowdown by refusing to cut interest rates as they focus on fighting inflation. If this proves correct 2009 could be a much better year for inbound tourism.

Visitor Analysis

June 2007	+1.2% (in comparison with June 2006)
July 2007	+0.2% (in comparison with July 2006)
August 2007	-5.1% (in comparison with August 2006)
September 2007	+0.4% (in comparison with September 2006)
October 2007	-3.4% (in comparison with October 2006)
November 2007	-4.2% (in comparison with November 2006)
December 2007	-2.5% (in comparison with December 2006)
January 2008	-3.9% (in comparison with January 2007)
February 2008	+1.4% (in comparison with February 2007)
March 2008	+2.3% (in comparison with March 2007)
April 2008	+1.7% (in comparison with April 2007)
May 2008	-3.8% (in comparison with May 2007)
June 2008	-5.5% (in comparison with June 2007)

Forward Bookings

June 2007	-1.5% (in comparison with June 2006)
July 2007	+1.8% (in comparison with July 2006)
August 2007	-4.4% (in comparison with August 2006)
September 2007	-1.6% (in comparison with September 2006)
October 2007	-0.5% (in comparison with October 2006)
November 2007	-2.3% (in comparison with November 2006)
December 2007	-4.8% (in comparison with December 2006)
January 2008	-2.6% (in comparison with January 2007)
February 2008	-2.5% (in comparison with February 2007)
March 2008	-5.4 % (in comparison with March 2007)
April 2008	+1.3% (in comparison with April 2007)
May 2008	-9.5% (in comparison with May 2007)
June 2008	-6.4% (in comparison with June 2007)