The Travel Business Roundtable/World Travel and Tourism Council (TBR/WTTC) Index of Leading Economic Indicators advanced robustly in October 2002. The increase amounted to a seasonally adjusted rate of 0.7 percent, the first monthly increase since June of this year. The specific details on the U.S. Index and the TBR/WTTC Index of Leading Economic Indicators are shown in the brief table below.

Percent Change From:
TBR/WTTC: Previous Month + 0.7%, 12 Months Ago + 5.2%
U.S. Previous: Month 0.0%, 12 Months Ago + 2.3%

The strong increase in the TBR/WTTC Index over the previous year reflects just how far the index declined in the wake of the events of September 11, 2001. The October 2002 TBR/WTTC Index now stands at 131.2 (1992 = 100), still 3.2 percent below the index's August peak of 135.6.

While the October increase was a positive sign about the future course of the travel and tourism industry, it resulted from an uneven pattern of change among the nine individual indicators included in the index. Specifically, there was a sharp decline in Consumer Confidence - it was down in October at a monthly rate of 0.7 percent - and three key indicators - ARC Sales, Hotel/Motel Occupancy Rate, and Hotel/Motel Revenue - showed great strength.

Among the five remaining Indicators, the October data were unchanged from the previous month. These indicators include the following:

• ATA RPM's


• Retail Sales at Eating and Drinking Establishments


• Personal Consumption Expenditures on Travel and Related Items


• Rental Car Daily Revenue


• Travel and Tourism Employment

Dr. James Howell, economist and president of the Boston-based Howell Group, notes that the severity of the adverse consequences of September 11, 2001 on the travel and tourism industry was shown clearly in the 2001 data. While the industry has begun to come back from those attacks, it will still be some time before it regains its previous position. In addition, the data shows that the industry was subject to the impact of the 2001 national recession, followed by an early recovery in 2001 and the softening in the economy in 2002.