Corporate travel buyers can expect to command significant savings next year. But with increases in air fares and a combination of regional hotel rate variances on the way, opportunities for savings may start to shrink, according to the just-released 2010 Industry Forecast from Advito, BCD Travel’s independent consulting unit.

“The negotiating outlook remains excellent for corporate clients in 2010 and there will be impressive discounts for customers who deliver ample business to their airline suppliers,” said Mary Ellen George, Advito general manager. “However, carriers may become fussier about their mix of business, possibly even withdrawing deals for clients that only buy tickets in the lowest fare classes. Prospects for a deal will remain particularly good in business class.”

The 2010 Industry Forecast, like previous-year forecasts, delivers predictions for air, hotel, car rental and rail. The analysis builds on Advito’s thorough understanding of the business travel market and the influence of global and local factors, providing travel managers and buyers with vital information for planning.

New this year is an expanded section on broader trends in travel management practices that reflect the structural shift in the industry. The forecast highlights eight trends spanning from demand management via the creation of strategic key performance indicators to the rapidly increasing importance of both mobile and social networking platforms for corporate travel.

George points out that the recession has left a lasting legacy, providing opportunities to drive improvements to travel programs that travel managers could previously only dream of.

“While we predict travel managers will retain much of their newly found influence on senior management, they should work as fast as they can to initiate and complete changes before the window of opportunity snaps shut. Change management is much harder to drive in a flourishing economic climate,” she said.

Looking ahead, Advito predicts the industry recovery will be slow and fragile. Travel volumes are expected to stabilize at the end of 2009, and the number of trips are projected to gradually move upward in the second half of 2010, gathering more momentum in 2011. Following are a few of the report’s key predictions:

Airfare
Worldwide, Advito expects low to moderate increases in average airline fares of 1.5 percent to 5 percent.
Hotels
Next year is still predicted to be a buyer’s market for corporate hotel programs despite moderate increases in some markets.
Car rental
The outlook for rates in 2010 remains relatively flat. Advito forecasts car rental rates to vary only slightly, according to local conditions.
Rail
Rising demand and continuing monopolies on nearly all rail routes result in increases in unregulated fares, especially on high-speed lines where heavy capital investment will need repaying for many years.
The forecast offers program recommendations and tactics for key travel categories. However, the most frequently talked about “word-of-wisdom” is the suggestion to negotiate soon as the window of opportunity is closing in 2010.

“Now is a good time to make deals,” said Bob Brindley, vice president of business solutions for Advito. “The regular sourcing cycles are not made for uncertain economic times. We see more companies moving to an ongoing contract management and renegotiation process for many categories. This allows them to benefit from market movements while still maintaining a partner approach to suppliers.”

Advito warns that unpredictable factors should be watched carefully. Downside risks such as major H1N1 outbreaks or a major rise in oil prices (e.g., due to speculation or geopolitical affairs) could significantly alter the dynamics of travel and travel management.