The tourism industry in Egypt will take longer than most to recover from the political unrest in the Middle East, according to new research revealed at the inaugural WTM Vision Conference - Dubai. The report – Travel and Tourism Global Overview published by Euromonitor International – predicts Egypt’s 2015 arrivals will remain lower than in 2010, although tourism receipts will increase slightly.

Egypt has dropped out of the world’s top five for arrivals absolute growth as its forecast outlook has been revised downwards following the revolution. Pre-revolution, Egypt was expected to grow at 9% per annum, receiving an additional 7 million visitors per year. Post-revolution, the country’s future outlook is bleaker, with annual growth for arrivals downgraded to -0.5% over 2010-2015, with 12.3 million international visitors expected in 2015, compared to 12.7 million in 2010.

Euromonitor International Travel and Tourism Industry Analyst Nadejda Popova told delegates at the WTM Vision Conference – Dubai, hosted at Arabian Travel Market: “It will take several years for travel and tourism in Egypt to recover to 2010 levels after the expected drop of 18% in international arrivals in 2011 and subsequent 20% fall in incoming receipts.”

“Consumer confidence” in the region as a safe destination will also take time to recover, Popova added. She said Turkey, Greece and Spain have already benefitted from travellers’ reluctance to visit Egypt, which is a key winter sun destination for many outbound markets including the increasingly important Russian travel industry.

Popova added: “There may be some political problems concerning the new government once elected and a rise in sectarian activities.”

A strong tourism sector is vital to Egypt’s economy, as more than 10% of its GDP comes from tourism. Euromonitor International suggests a more liberal “Open Skies” policy would be an easy way to kickstart the recovery by expanding the country’s air capacity.

World Travel Market Exhibition Director Simon Press said: “Egypt has a very strong tourism infrastructure and is a very popular year-round destination for a number of key tourism markets including the UK and Russia. The Egyptian government has already started working closely with the travel trade to minimise the impact of the political uprising and help the country’s vital tourism industry recover as soon as possible.”