The Ernst & Young Retail and Consumer Products Group anticipates that the 2003 retail holiday sales increase for November and December will be 5.2 percent -- compared to a 3.4 percent increase for the same period last year. The economic turnaround that began
in the third quarter is expected to give retailers the boost they sorely need to make this holiday season greener than last year`s.

According to Jay McIntosh, Americas Director of the Retail and Consumer Products Group for Ernst & Young, The economy has been bolstered by increases in disposable income and housing starts combined with federal income tax rate reductions and low prime
interest rates. However, the six-plus-percent unemployment rate and deflationary trends in major holiday merchandise categories -- in particular, toys, apparel, and consumer electronics -- could temper holiday sales. The effect of the tax reduction on retail sales will be one percent or less and will have only a minimal effect on holiday spending.

The Ernst & Young Holiday Sales Forecast is based on 12 years of data, including stock market performance, consumer confidence, unemployment rates and historical relationships between retailers and their customers.