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Leading indicator for US hotels advances 11 months in a row

Looking at HIL's six-month growth rate, which has historically confirmed the forthcoming turning points in U.S. hotel business activity, posted a positive rate of 4.4% in September, following a positive rate of 4.5% in August.

DURHAM, NEW HAMPSHIRE, USA –  Future business activity in U.S. hotels rose in September according to the latest reading of the Hotels’ future business conditions  (HIL) indicator. e-forecasting.com‘s HIL, a composite indicator that gauges future monthly overall business conditions in the U.S. hotel industry, increased by 0.3% in September to 118.3, following an increase of 0.4% in August. The index is set to equal 100 in 2005.

Looking at HIL’s six-month growth rate, which has historically confirmed the forthcoming turning points in U.S. hotel business activity, posted a positive rate of 4.4% in September, following a positive rate of 4.5% in August. This compares to a long-term annual growth rate of 3%, the same as the 30-year average annual growth rate of the industry’s gross domestic product.
                                                        
The probability of the hotel industry entering into recession in the near-term, which is detected in real-time from HIL with the help of sophisticated statistical techniques, registered 3.4% in September, up from 3.1% reported in August. When this recession-warning gauge passes the threshold probability of 50% for a more than three months, the U.S. hotel industry will enter a recession phase in its business cycle.
                               
“Led by strong recovery in housing and an improving labor market, the leading indicator for hotel business activity increased for an eleventh month in a row ,” said Maria Simos Sogard, CEO of e-forecasting.com.       

Seven of the forward looking indicators of business activity that comprise Hotel Industry Leading (HIL) Indicator had a positive contribution to its change in September: Jobs Market; Hotel Profitability; Foreign Demand; Yield Curve; New Orders; Oil Prices and Housing Activity.  Two indicators of future business activity had a negative or zero contribution to HIL’s change in September: Hotel Worker Hours and Vacation Barometer.

“Given the recent path of the hotel predictive analytics, the latest US Monthly Hotel Forecast predicts in 2015 RevPAR to stay unchanged from 2014 levels” said Maria Sogard.

e-forecasting.com, an international economic research and consulting firm, offers forecasts of the economic environment using proprietary, real-time economic indicators to produce customized solutions for what’s next. e­forecasting.com collaborates with domestic and international clients and publications to provide timely economic content for use as predictive intelligence to strengthen its clients’ competitive advantage.         

The US hotel industry leading indicator, or HIL for short, is a monthly leading indicator for the industry. Building off the tracking success of HIP, the real-time indicator for the U.S. hotel industry, HIL was built as a composite indicator that uses nine different components that, on average, when put together have led the industry four to five months in advance of a change in direction in the industry business cycle. HIL provides useful information about the future direction of the U.S. hotel industry.

Tatiana Rokou

Tatiana is the news coordinator for TravelDailyNews Media Network (traveldailynews.gr, traveldailynews.com and traveldailynews.asia). Her role includes monitoring the hundreds of news sources of TravelDailyNews Media Network and skimming the most important according to our strategy.

She holds a Bachelor's degree in Communication & Mass Media from Panteion University of Political & Social Studies of Athens and she has been editor and editor-in-chief in various economic magazines and newspapers.

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