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Data from trivago shows European travel demand thwarted by second lockdowns

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It seems that Britons were relying on last minute bookings in October, with booking share for trips in 0-1 days rising to approximately 36% from around 30% in September.

trivago, one of the world’s leading accommodation metasearch engines, has examined its platform data to shed light on how the latest European lockdowns are affecting travel bookings on the continent, giving the industry a glimpse into what could be ahead for UK travel booking trends.

This comes as on 28th October, both France and Germany announced second (partial) lockdowns, starting from 30th October in France and from 1st November in Germany.

trivago’s data, pulled throughout October, gives a glimpse at the trends in searches up to, and including, these announcements, including desire to travel, time to travel and domestic vs international.

The company has analysed data from the month of October to reveal:

  • In France, the second lockdown announcement has led to an immediate decline in desire to travel, but the impact was not as severe in Germany
  • Domestic travel lost popularity in October in France, Germany and the UK, even before lockdowns were announced, however was still remaining strong.
  • With many consumers making last minute searches (36% of British searches are for next day travel) this November lockdown could represent a significant loss of yet-to-be booked income for UK accommodation providers.

Reaction to second lockdowns

  • By the end October 2020, France and Germany had entered their second lockdowns, with the UK set to follow suit.
  • In Germany, the lockdown announcement did not lead to a sharp decrease at the end of October, but instead showed a gradual decline, following expected seasonal behaviour.
  • In France however, we see a flat trend throughout October, until the very last week where click-outs* drop off.

Domestic vs international travel

  • In France and the UK, the share of click-outs  to domestic accommodation increased steadily from around April 2020, reaching 70% at the end of summer. In the week of 19th October (before the lockdown announcements), this decreased to around 60% for both the UK and France
  • In Germany, the share of domestic travel is slightly higher, at around 70% w/c 19th October, but this has decreased since the start of October (prior to October there had been a steady increase since July).

 

Time to travel (please note – the chart is not for publication).
- It seems that Britons were relying on last minute bookings in October, with booking share for trips in 0-1 days rising to approximately 36% from around 30% in September.
- Compared to September, the UK showed a minor increase in mid-term travel (60-90 days) and desire for long-term travel (91+ days) remained consistent.
- This follows the same pattern as Germany and France, which also saw increase in mid-term and very short term trips.

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