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Embraer publishes 20-year Market Outlook

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Effects of the global pandemic have impacted global traffic recovery, measured in revenue passenger kilometers, which Embraer forecasts to grow 3.3% annually to 2040. The worldwide RPK volume of 2019 is expected to return in 2024.

DUBAI, UNITED ARAB EMIRATES – Embraer has published its 20-year Market Outlook for commercial aircraft deliveries through 2040. The report was presented at a press briefing during the Dubai Air Show. The Market Outlook identifies trends that will influence demand for air travel and deliveries of new jet and turboprop aircraft up to 150 seats over the next two decades. Results are given for seven world regions.
 
Effects of the global pandemic have impacted global traffic recovery, measured in revenue passenger kilometers, which Embraer forecasts to grow 3.3% annually to 2040. The worldwide RPK volume of 2019 is expected to return in 2024.
 
Three key trends are shaping future demand for travel and aircraft:
(i) Environment – airlines will acquire more fuel-efficient fleets
(ii) Digitalization – advances in technology, including work-from-home and videoconferencing
(iii) Regionalization – re-shoring to localize production and minimize supply-chain disruption.
 
Highlights of the 20-Year Commercial Market Outlook
 
Global demand for new aircraft up to 150 seats

  • 10,900 units
  • 8,640 jets
  • 2,260 turboprops

 
Market value of all new aircraft: USD 650 billion
 
Annual RPK regional growth rate – ranked 

  • 4.2% Asia Pacific (includes China)
  • 4.2% Latin America
  • 3.8% Africa
  • 3.6% Middle East
  • 3.5% CIS
  • 2.3% Europe
  • 2.0% North America

 
RPK share by the end of the decade (2029)

  • 41% Asia Pacific
  • 36% Europe + North America

 
Jet deliveries (8,640) – ranked by region

  • 2,710 North America (31.4%)
  • 2,160 Asia Pacific (25.0%)
  • 1,770 Europe (20.5%)
  • 760 Latin America (8.8%)
  • 640 CIS (7.4%)
  • 320 Middle East (3.7%)
  • 280 Africa (3.2%)     

 
Turboprop deliveries (2,260) – ranked by region

  • 900 Asia Pacific (39.8%)
  • 430 Europe (19.0%)
  • 430 North America (19.0%)
  • 180 Africa (8.0%)
  • 180 Latin America (8.0%)
  • 100 CIS (4.4%)
  • 40 Middle East (1.8%)

Embraer announces a contract with Overland Airways for up to six E175s
Embraer has also announced, at the Dubai Air Show, a firm order for three new E175, plus three purchase rights for the same model of aircraft, with Overland Airways, from Nigeria. The 88-seat aircraft, with premium class cabin configuration, will be delivered from 2023. The deal is worth at USD 299.4 million, at list price with all purchase rights being exercised.
 
These aircraft will increase the domestic flights and allow to expand more regional routes. The president and CEO of Overland Airways, Capt. Edward Boyo, said, “we are confident that this is the right moment to invest, as regional aviation is on an optimistic post-pandemic recovery. Our customers will really enjoy all comfort in the E175, and we appreciate our partnership with Embraer.”
 
Cesar Pereira, Vice-president for Europe, Middle East and Africa, Embraer Commercial Aviation said, “we are proud of this partnership with Overland and to support their regional expansion. We are seeing growing long-term demand for rightsized aircraft to deliver profitable domestic connections in Nigeria.”
 
During the pandemic, the E175 has been a vital tool for many regional airlines, as they are perfectly suited to rebuilding network, enhancing frequencies and efficiently adding capacity to meet demand that has been gradually recovering.

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