The demand for air travel continues strong according to Air4Casts as the trend data for the March actuals does not suggest any slowing in the pace of the passenger advance. It is up slightly on February but not…
The demand for air travel continues strong according to Air4Casts as the trend data for the March actuals does not suggest any slowing in the pace of the passenger advance. It is up slightly on February but not nearly back to the breathless heights of late Spring last year. However, latest reports from the airports show April ahead by 4.3%; and while the sample is both small and self-selecting, it shows only minor changes from the previous month`s pattern.
The June forecast for passengers globally is for year on year growth of 4.2%. The forecast for Quarter 3 is slightly higher at 4.4% and that is a function of the rising trend. It may be that this trend is not yet full reflected in the projections and that growth rates will again move up a notch in the next three months. A contributory factor could arise from the US market where 2006 supply side changes depressed growth rates in the last half of the year.
USA
The June forecast remains weak with total demand expected to rise by no more than 1.2% and with a question mark over internationals where no growth is expected this month.
UK
In the next Quarter international passenger numbers will be up by 3.1% and total traffic by 2.9%; in June domestic demand will be flat with internationals rising by 3.6%.
France
International passenger growth will be 5.7% in June and in Quarter 3 it will be a little lower at 4.6%. Total passenger flows in June will be up by four percentage points.
Germany
The June forecast at the total passenger level is for year on year growth of 4.8% which is strongly supported by the international sector where the expected growth rate is 5.7%.
Japan
Japan still lags quite substantially behind the regional norm for Asia/Pacific with expected growth in June of 3.7% in total passenger numbers and 4.0% for international passengers.
International
The June forecast, at 5.6% for international passengers worldwide, is in line with previous projections and underlines the strong forces which continue to operate in the main regions.
Domestic
Growth in domestic air travel demand in June will be 3.2% but, importantly, there are no signs of the upward trend weakening; the forecast for the third Quarter is 4.4% year on year.
Total
June should see total passenger numbers rise by 4.2% with a Quarter 3 increase of 4.4% presently projected; the base trend line for March actuals shows a further slight rise on 2006.
Asia/Pacific
The third Quarter growth forecast for the region is just a fraction under the 7% mark as the furious rate of growth in international demand eases back a little. June will be up by 7.3%.
Europe
Passenger numbers are set to rise by 5.4% in the month of June driven by a 5.8% projected growth in international travel demand. Q3 growth in total passengers will be around 4.5%
North America
The June forecast for total passengers is 1.2%; but for the third Quarter it appears better with a forecast of 2.4% growth which is influenced by US supply side changes in 2006.
AFRICA
With the demand trend still rising, the forecast for June is that passenger numbers will rise by 11.6% at the total level with similar rates for both domestic and international routes.
Middle East
The Quarter 3 forecast for the region is more moderate with international travel demand rising by 6.8%. The outlook for June is good with international numbers likely to rise by 8.9%
Latin America
Moderate demand growth is likely to continue in June and through into the third Quarter. The forecast for the month is for domestic passengers to grow by 2.4% year on year.
Theodore is the Co-Founder and Managing Editor of TravelDailyNews Media Network; his responsibilities include business development and planning for TravelDailyNews long-term opportunities.
