Global economic crisis continues to grip the aviation industry, with international passenger growth at airports in February 2009 down by 11 percent and domestic traffic down by 10 percent (as compared to February 2008). The setbacks are substantial throughout all regions, with the exception of international passenger traffic in the Middle East and domestic traffic in Asia Pacific (+1%). Several factors should be taken into account in analysing February results. Firstly, 2008 was a…
Global economic crisis continues to grip the aviation industry, with international passenger growth at airports in February 2009 down by 11 percent and domestic traffic down by 10 percent (as compared to February 2008).
Passenger
The setbacks are substantial throughout all regions, with the exception of international passenger traffic in the Middle East and domestic traffic in Asia Pacific (+1%). Several factors should be taken into account in analysing February results. Firstly, 2008 was a leap year and the 29th additionally fell on a Friday, which is a busy travel day. This phenomenon may contribute as much as a 4 percent variation. Month over month comparisons for China were affected by two additional factors: Chinese New Year fell in January this year, whereas it was in February last year, and a major snowstorm snarled traffic early in February 2008.
ACI Director Andreas Schimm comments, “Removing the extraordinary factors, the downward trend has not been further aggravated in February and there is hope that these figures might be the worst we will see this year. March traffic will lose the effect of Easter traffic, with Easter coming in April this year as opposed to March in 2008, yet there are indications that adjusted March traffic declines could be milder and that the first quarter of 2009 may be close to the bottom of the trough.”
Freight
For the third month in a row freight traffic continued to fall, with reductions of around 20 percent worldwide compared to the same months in 2008. These figures mirror the record export declines that have occurred across the world. As with passenger traffic, there is a leap year adjustment of up to 4 percent to apply.
Domestic freight contraction in Asia Pacific has slowed compared to January 2009, whereas air freight volumes in the rest of the world have continued the downward slide month on month. A positive in the picture is renewed demand that lifted domestic freight in China by almost 4 percent.
International freight dropped by a third at important hubs including Narita, Kuala Lumpur, Bangkok and Taipei, and at Shanghai, Singapore, Hong Kong and Incheon traffic fell by 20 percent. Europe and North America markets shrank by about 25 percent and Latin America / Caribbean declined by 34 percent.
Schimm comments, “In light of the leap year adjustment, there is cautious hope that we are currently passing the bottom of the freight downturn. However the plateau that freight is currently experiencing could well extend a bit longer, and it will be a long and rocky road to reach volumes seen in the first half 2008.”
Theodore is the Co-Founder and Managing Editor of TravelDailyNews Media Network; his responsibilities include business development and planning for TravelDailyNews long-term opportunities.
