A report issued by PricewaterhouseCoopers’ Hospitality & Leisure Practice quantifies how concerns about the safety and convenience of…
A report issued by PricewaterhouseCoopers’ Hospitality & Leisure Practice quantifies how concerns about the safety and convenience of air travel continue to restrain U.S. lodging demand.
PwC econometric modeling indicates that the average daily loss in occupied room nights remains considerable, at 44,100 in the first quarter of 2002 and 31,300 in the second quarter. In comparison, average daily loss in room night sales in the quarter following September 11, 2001, was 92,000. On average, the year-to-date effect of travel concerns in 2002 has been a percentage point loss in daily room occupancy.
According to Bjorn Hanson, Ph.D., global industry leader, PricewaterhouseCoopers Hospitality & Leisure Practice, though lodging demand picked up in some measure during the first half of 2002, actual demand remains weak and below what would be consistent with observed levels of U.S. economic activity.
PwC Reaffirms Estimates for Second Half of 2002
PricewaterhouseCoopers’ Hospitality & Leisure Practice reaffirms its lodging demand forecasts for the second half of 2002, specifically estimating that lodging demand will remain weak through the third quarter of 2003. Estimated average daily loss in room night sales are expected to increase slightly to 54,000 in the third quarter of 2002 and 61,800 in the fourth quarter of 2002.
This slight increase in the average daily loss appears consistent with heightened concerns surrounding the first year anniversary of the September 11 events and constant media coverage of Federal security alerts, potential terrorist activity, and possible military operations in Iraq.
PwC’s next regularly scheduled forecast issuance will be in December of 2002.
Table: Occupancy Points and Average Daily Loss of U.S. Room Night Sales due to Travel Disruption and Traveler Concerns about Safety and Convenience of Travel following September 11, 2001.
- 3Q 2001* Average Daily Loss in U.S. Room Night Sales 65,900 Occupancy points – 1.6
- 4Q 2001 Average Daily Loss in U.S. Room Night Sales 92,000 Occupancy points – 2.2
- 1Q 2002 Average Daily Loss in U.S. Room Night Sales 44,100 Occupancy points – 1.1
- 2Q 2002 Average Daily Loss in U.S. Room Night Sales 31,300 Occupancy points – 0.7
- 3Q 2002 – estimate Average Daily Loss in U.S. Room Night Sales 54,000 Occupancy points – 1.3
- 4Q 2002V – estimate Average Daily Loss in U.S. Room Night Sales 61,800 Occupancy points – 1.5
* The effect was concentrated in the last 20 days of the quarter, during which the average daily loss in room night sales was 292,100.
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