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Overview
While the impact of the Gulf War was felt widely throughout the U.S. travel industry, the duration of that impact was relatively short-lived. By 1992 the industry had rebounded to its pre-war performance level. It is interesting to note however, that international air travel by U.S. carriers experienced a greater decline than domestic air travel. Similarly, it was quicker to rebound in 1992. The conclusion, if any, that can be drawn from the industry’s experience with the Gulf War, is that people want to travel, demand will build during hostilities, and within a relatively short time – about a year – travel will rebound to pre-war levels. This of course assumes a relatively short conflict with a decisive conclusion. It also assumes no additional hostilities or acts of terrorism.
Air Travel
According to the Air Transport Association of America, total revenue passenger enplanements for domestic and international air travel declined modestly in November and December 1990 and then dropped throughout the entire year of 1991 with the exception of a 3% increase in December over the previously depressed December of 1990. The biggest drops in air travel were in February (-17.4%) and March (-10.6%) during the height of the war.
In a year to year comparison revenue passenger enplanements dropped from 454,389,000 in 1990 to 438,177,000 in 1991, a decline of almost 4%. However, by 1992 air travel had completely recovered (456,012,000 revenue passenger enplanements) and by 1993 it had risen to 461,750,000.
Domestic revenue passenger enplanements fell from 413,306,000 in 1990 to 399,428,000 in 1991 but recovered again to 413,990,000 in 1992 and by 1993 the total had risen to 417,670,000.
International revenue passenger enplanements dropped from 41,038,000 in 1990 to 38,749,000 in 1991 and recovered to 42,022,000 in 1992. By 1993 international revenue passenger enplanements were 44,038,000.
Lodging
The number of hotel rooms sold in the U.S. dropped significantly in the winter of 1990-1991 and remained flat the rest of 1991. In 1990 the number of hotel rooms sold was 734.4 million and that number dropped to 724.5 million in 1991. By 1992 hotel rooms sold had rebounded to 738.2 million and by 1993 it had risen to 756.2 million.
Employment
| (in thousands) |
1990
|
1991
|
1992
|
| Total Travel Related |
6220.0
|
6180.0
|
6140.0
|
|
841.4
|
834.6
|
835.6
|
|
647.1
|
626.4
|
615.7
|
|
1,578.3
|
1,538.3
|
1,526.1
|
|
99.0
|
95.9
|
97.1
|
|
1,076.0
|
1,122.2
|
1,188.1
|
Other Resources
The Strategic Development Council of the National Tour Association has produced a study titled External Volatility – War and Civil Unrest that addresses the impact of war and civil unrest on travel and tourism by examining five recent case studies. For more information contact Catherine Prather, Vice President Marketing and Communications, National Tour Association, 869-226-4264, catherine.prather@ntastaff.com
Theodore is the Co-Founder and Managing Editor of TravelDailyNews Media Network; his responsibilities include business development and planning for TravelDailyNews long-term opportunities.
