ITB 2003 – Preliminary data from national travel surveys and the European Travel Monitor (ETM) – look forward to an update from IPK International`s Rolf Freitag at ITB point to…
ITB 2003 – Preliminary data from national travel surveys and the European Travel Monitor (ETM) – look forward to an update from IPK International`s Rolf Freitag at ITB point to a 2-3 per cent rise in European outbound travel in 2002. The ETM estimate, which is based on ten months of actual results, shows positive trends for most of the leading source countries, although France and Germany seem to have stagnated. However, Spain and Italy were up 2 per cent, the Netherlands 3 per cent and the UK 5per cent. The UK`s International Passenger Survey (IPS) puts the UK outbound growth at 2 per cent, but IPS data includes day trips.
UK outbound, in terms of trip volume, registered increases to 18 of the 27 ETC member countries providing data on UK trends. Bulgaria, at the upper extreme, reported a 53 per cent increase, both Croatia and Turkey were up 23 per cent and Lithuania and Norway recorded growth of 16-17 per cent. There was also good growth for Hungary. At the bottom of the ranking for UK growth, Latvia was down 11 per cent, Norway 10 per cent and Germany 5 per cent.
Although it is impossible to identify any specific regional patterns out of the UK to Europe, the Mediterranean generally suffered – with the exception of Turkey – in favour of Central and Eastern European destinations. Cyprus was down -14 per cent to end-August but managed to pick up by year-end, and declines were also expected for Malta and Monaco. Nevertheless, Italy recorded a 1 per cent increase out of the UK and Spain was up 3.5 per cent – with growth coming in the last few months of the year in both cases. UK travel to France, meanwhile, stagnated.
As for the UK, German outbound showed mixed performances from one European destination to another but the trend to lower-cost sun & beach destinations was much more marked than for the UK. Bulgaria was the main winner with a 2 per cent increase out of Germany, and the Baltic states all registered positive results. The UK and Ireland both showed increases over 2001 – no doubt a reaction to last year`s declines due to footand-mouth – with the UK up 11 per cent.
There were declines out of Germany for both Spain (-4 per cent) and Portugal, with the exception of Turkey (+21 per cent), and the rest of Mediterranean was also down – Greece declined by 6 per cent, Cyprus by 19 per cent, Malta by 9 per cent and Italy by 1 per cent. Croatia, meanwhile, reported a 21 per cent increase. Other East European destinations all reported good increases out of Germany – no doubt, because they represent value-for-money destinations for budget travellers – but Hungary was an exception to the general rule, declining by 11 per cent in terms of overnights from Germany.
The French outbound market registered increases to 17 ETC member countries and decreases to eleven. Contrary to the trend from other European source markets, France was up 20 per cent to Spain, while Cyprus recorded the sharpest decline.
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