Current booking trends underlining the strong consumer demand in the current macro-economic environment and the popularity of our product offering.
Confirmation of expectations for a strong Summer 2023 with bookings in final month of season well ahead of Summer 2022. TUI said “We are pleased to see the positive momentum continuing into Winter 2023/24 supported by higher prices. TUI is well positioned to achieve the results target for FY 2023.”
Summer 2023
- Strong pipeline of 13.7m1 bookings for the Summer 2023 season, a +5% increase against prior season and close to pre-pandemic levels at 96%
- 1.1m additional bookings taken since our Q3 2023 update with demand in the final month of season well ahead of Summer 2022 at +8%
- Season extension in particular in Greece and Turkey to accommodate increased demand
- ASP for Summer 2023 continues to be well ahead at +8% versus prior season and +27% versus Summer 2019, slightly ahead of the levels reported at Q3
Winter 2023/24
- Positive momentum continuing into Winter 2023/24 with an expanded programme and overall bookings up +15% against Winter 2022/23. Promising booking situation across all key source markets supported by higher prices +4% versus prior season. We are hedged for the coming Winter and Summer season in line with our expectations
- UK, as usual, with 38% of the season sold, is the most advanced booked on a larger programme. Bookings are at +8% and ASP +3% against Winter 2022/23
- Holiday Experiences trading remains well on track to deliver in line with expectations both for Summer 2023 and Winter 2023/24
Expectations
- TUI reconfirms expectations to increase underlying EBIT2 significantly for both Q4 2023 and also for FY 2023 against FY 2022TUI Group
- Q4 underlying EBIT FY 20232 expected to increase significantly against prior year – Hotels & Resorts anticipated to be close to an already strong prior year. Both Cruises and Markets & Airlines set to achieve a significantly improved result with a strong increase in results expected for TUI Musement
- FY 2023 Assumption2 – we reconfirm our expectations to increase underlying EBIT significantly for FY 2023
- Mid-term ambitions – we are focused on operational excellence and execution of our strategy. We have a clear strategy to accelerate profitable growth with new customer segments and more product sales. Our mid-term 2025/26 ambitions are for underlying EBIT to significantly build on 1.2bn euros3. We have a target to return to a gross leverage ratio4 of well below 3.0x and aim to return to a credit rating in line with the pre-pandemic rating of BB / Ba territory
- We will issue the TUI Group Full Year results on Wednesday 6 December 2023 and hold a presentation for investors and analysts in London on the same day. Further details will follow
1 Bookings up to 10 September 2023 and relate to all customers whether risk or non-risk
2 Based on constant currency
3 FY 2019 underlying EBIT of 893m euros including 293m euros Boeing MAX cost impact
4 Defined as gross debt (financial liabilities incl. lease liabilities & net pension obligations) divided by underlying EBITDA
Theodore is the Co-Founder and Managing Editor of TravelDailyNews Media Network; his responsibilities include business development and planning for TravelDailyNews long-term opportunities.
