2004 has been a particularly strong year for both inbound and domestic tourism…
2004 has been a particularly strong year for both inbound and domestic tourism . By the end of the year, inbound visits will have reached a record high of 26.3 million in 2004, an increase of 6.6 per cent on 2003. The value of inbound tourism will reach £12.3 billion in 2004, supported by the success of VisitBritain’s international touring and city breaks campaigns. In addition to developing www.visitbritain.com in 36 countries with information in 19 different languages, VisitBritain has continued to exploit the potential new and emerging markets. 2005 will see the launch of our luxury consumer travel magazine, So British, in the USA and Russia and new local-language websites planned for the Czech Republic, Hungary, Thailand, Malaysia and Greece. Domestic tourism in England has performed equally strongly in 2004. The Enjoy England campaigns have raised awareness of all that can be experienced in this country and the King Arthur movie map, City Culture, Outdoor, Waterside and Taste England initiatives have driven British travellers’ increasing demand for news about domestic holidays.
For 2005, VisitBritain forecasts a year of steady growth in the volume and value of inbound tourism. We expect visits from overseas to rise by a further 3 per cent to 27.1 million while the value of these visits should increase by 3.2 per cent to £12.7 billion, challenging the previous record set in 2000. While growth is forecast from all world regions, we anticipate the strongest growth in 2005 to come from Asia and also from emerging markets including those of Eastern Europe.
Domestically, English tourism continues to prosper. Industry evidence is supported by VisitBritain research indicating that one in ten adults are planning to take an overnight trip in England over the Christmas and New Year period. In addition to the Enjoy England Holiday Planner for 2005 raising awareness of all that the destination offers for British visitors on a break in England, new campaigns will encourage them to Just Relax and refamiliarise themselves with the triumphs and achievements of English geniuses and inventors. 2005 will also see VisitBritain continue to develop the EnglandNet project and further strengthen its engagement with all sectors of the industry.
FEEDBACK FROM THE TOURISM INDUSTRY
Ukinbound
The weakness of the US Dollar remains a major concern. There is little prospect of any improvement in the short term with some economists predicting it could sink as low as $2.20 to the Pound by the second quarter before recovering to current levels by the end of 2005. Whilst unwelcome this is unlikely to have a substantial impact on visitor numbers but will undoubtedly curtail discretionary spending. It is, therefore, unlikely we will see any significant change in the number of North American visitors over the next 12 months. Of more concern is the effect the weak Dollar may have on other long haul markets that are linked to the Dollar or who hold substantial Dollar reserves.
The situation in Europe remains stable with the Euro bolstering Western European markets particularly in the no-frills short break business and there is every indication that this is likely to continue throughout 2005.
Prices will determine just how good a year we will have but with operating costs already pared to the bone it will be difficult to remain competitive. Therefore, with any growth coming from European budget breaks our projections for 2005 show a slight growth of about 2 per cent in visitor numbers to just over 27 million with revenue remaining static at about £12.5 Billion.
British Hospitality Association
We expect overseas business to continue to improve in 2005 though the weakness of the dollar is a concern; we must therefore ensure that traffic from Europe and the rest of the world remains strong. The domestic short-break market will continue to expand. After seven years in which its grant-in-aid has effectively been reduced, the government must fund VisitBritain more generously if Britain is to compete effectively on an ever-expanding world tourism stage. That`s the biggest challenge.
Tourism Alliance
2005 is shaping to be a good year for tourism in the UK. We are expecting the recovery in inbound tourism seen during 2004 to be consolidated during 2005, especially in the European market where budget airlines continue to provide new routes to regional destinations. Also encouragingly, the threat of a major terrorist attack, although still present, has receded somewhat, and the Asian economies are looking stronger than they have for the past few years. However, the continued weakness of the US dollar against the pound will put pressure on this market which accounts for some 25 per cent of total inbound tourism expenditure, and this will take the shine of the total inbound tourism performance for the year.
In the domestic market, there are also indications that 2005 will be a good year for tourism. The unemployment rate remains historically low, average pay rises are above inflation and there is a general view among economists that the Bank of England’s base interest rate may well have peaked. This all means that the housing market will remain stable, with owners having relatively high levels of disposable income and perceived wealth. Combined with high levels of investment in the sector by operators, these indicators suggest that 2005 will be a year of growth in the domestic tourism industry.
Wales Tourist Board
2004 was a period of consolidation for tourism in Wales following the bumper year in 2003. With the Welsh tourist industry in a very positive frame of mind, we hope to build on this year’s performance and meet again with great success in 2005, bolstered by a host of new developments and events coming on stream. The year ended on a high with the launch of the new UK Marketing campaign, which we’re confident will be a worthy successor to the previous Big Country campaign that generated more than £165 million for the Welsh economy over the last three years.
2004 held momentous news for the tourism industry in Wales as the Welsh Assembly Government announced plans for the Board to form part of the central administration and bring the decision-making process closer to the people that matter, the Welsh tourism industry. Over the next year the Wales Tourist Board will continue to commit itself to making the new arrangements work for the benefit of the tourism industry, WTB staff, the Welsh Assembly Government and for the economy of Wales as a whole.
VisitScotland
Scotland’s tourism industry is looking ahead to a buoyant 2005 with the value of UK tourism to Scotland set to reach £3.9bn with an additional projected income of £0.9 billion from international tourism. The total value of Scottish tourism in 2005 will be £4.8 billion.
With occupancy rates at a five year high, visitor attractions showing a steady increase and Scotland’s airports showing an marked increase in volume of between 4.5 per cent to over 10 per cent in the case of Aberdeen, the industry as a whole is confident of a growth year in 2005.
Visit London
Following on from a strong year in 2004, Visit London expects 2005 to be another decent year for tourism in London. This should not only be good news for London, but also other parts of the UK, as the capital acts as a gateway to the majority of overseas visitors. In particular, prospects in many long haul markets remain strong, with significant levels of pent up demand. European visitors are also expected to continue flocking to London, taking shorter but more frequent breaks in the capital.
Domestic prospects are more mixed reflecting weaker consumer confidence and lower consumer spending. The sustained weakness of the US Dollar is another worry. However, London should continue to benefit from a strong Euro, which is encouraging European visits.
Overall, the world’s love affair with London should strengthen during the year, with especially strong prospects from many long haul markets.
Cendant Hotel Group
2004 has been a very strong year for the Days Inn brand in the UK & Ireland and we expect this to continue in 2005. Increases in RevPAR have been higher than the sector average and the prognosis for further increases is very strong. In addition we have plans to grow our portfolio by more than 50 per cent, with more than 20 new openings in the pipeline.
The acquisition of Ramada International Hotels & Resorts by Cendant Corporation’s Hotel Group from Marriott International Inc. has recently been completed. This transaction substantially advances our strategic plan to expand aggressively outside the United States while we focus on the growth and improved performance of our domestic system.
Association of Exhibition Organisers
Consumer shows continued to go from strength to strength in 2004, a theme aptly represented by the Schroders London International Boat Show`s increase in attendance of some 68,000 visitors. Maintaining visitor numbers at trade shows remains the challenge, though show revenues continue to grow throughout the industry.
The lines between exhibitions, conferences and events are becoming more and more blurred; a sign that organisers are continuing to add value to the visitor experience.
The AEO continues to up the anti on training with the launch of the `Make A Stand – 30 Killer Secrets To Exhibiting Success` film and e-learning package, its calendar of training courses aimed at all aspects of the industry, and its successful programme of free SOS exhibitor training seminars, all of which are delivering tangible results.
Association of British Travel Agents
We anticipate a healthy level of domestic bookings in 2005 as the continuing strength of the Euro makes EU countries less attractive destinations.
Eastern Europe and Turkey have sold very well for Summer 2005 as well as mid haul and long haul destinations. The current weakness of the US dollar has led to a marked increase in bookings to the US and Mexico.
The growth in self packaging means that a higher number of clients will not take a traditional package holiday next year, though we see this representing more a drop in market with the total number of packages sold remaining fairly static.
British Association of Conference Destinations
Association of British Professional Conference Organisers
Activity levels among both BACD and ABPCO members seem to be generally healthy and there is a quiet confidence about prospects for 2005. It is certainly the case that, from a supply-side perspective, 2004 has witnessed substantial continuing investment in the infrastructure that supports meetings, conventions and exhibitions. Plans for new convention centres in Blackpool, Brighton, Cardiff, Jersey, Liverpool, London and NewcastleGateshead are progressing, while work on Perth`s 1200-seat Concert Hall and Conference Centre is on schedule for an opening in 2005. The level of current and projected investment suggests confidence in the sector`s economic vitality and its ability to produce effective returns.
While expectations for 2005 seem generally to be positive, we endorse the view that growth will be incremental rather than dramatic. There is an underlying robustness and resilience in the business tourism sector which carries it through economic downturns, and also enables it to capitalise during improving economic conditions. Steady improvements to the global economy should bring with them significant opportunities for business tourism UK, although it is clear that competition will be fiercer than ever.
The Caravan Club
In 2004 The Caravan Club experienced yet another year of record membership growth. It currently stands at over 334,000 households and represents the interests of 850,000 caravan, motor caravan and trailer tent owners. There are more than 1.6 million caravanners in the UK and The Club has over 50% share of the total market and remains dominant in the marketplace.
The market growth in touring caravanning is anticipated to slow slightly in 2005 following steady growth over the last three years. The current UK market size estimates for 2005 remain at 500, 000 touring caravans (National Caravan Council) and 118,000 motor caravans (Motorhome Information Service). In a wider context, the European Caravan Federation estimates that there are over 4 million touring caravans in use in Europe plus around 920,000 motor caravans.
Theodore is the Co-Founder and Managing Editor of TravelDailyNews Media Network; his responsibilities include business development and planning for TravelDailyNews long-term opportunities.
