Overall pricing increases modest as economic uncertainty keeps rates relatively flat in most mature markets; Deceleration in growth expected to temper prices in China.
NEW YORK – According to American Express Global Business Travel in its Global Business Travel Forecast 2013, projected increases in business travel pricing in select markets in Latin America, Asia, and Eastern Europe indicate that road warriors will likely continue to travel in these regions to pursue business opportunities in 2013. At the same time, global economic uncertainty – particularly due to the fiscal crisis in Europe and deceleration of growth in China – is expected to curtail demand and keep rates in mature markets, as well as in China, relatively flat. Taken together, American Express Global Business Travel forecasts prices globally to increase only modestly.
“We are expecting a dynamic landscape for business travel in 2013, with prices likely rising to reflect companies’ interest in doing business in growing economies such as Brazil, India, and Russia, but staying flat or even declining in those markets where growth is stagnant,” said Herve Sedky, Senior Vice President and General Manager, Global Business Partnerships & Premium Services, American Express Global Business Travel. “Our Forecast helps companies understand where in the world and in which categories prices will likely increase and by how much, so they can make smart and informed decisions about how their investment in business travel is best allocated.”
Through meticulous research and expert analysis of one of the most comprehensive travel and payment data repositories in the industry, the Global Business Travel Forecast 2013 provides nearly 2600 predictions across air fares, hotel rates, and car rental rates in 29 countries. This year, the report adds four new markets (Italy, Poland, Russia, and South Korea) and introduces predictions for published air fares in addition to paid fares, since understanding this gap is integral to companies looking to effectively manage their business travel programs in today’s marketplace.
“Our Forecast goes beyond mere figures representing the prices a supplier is expected to charge to provide recommendations around other factors to consider – including who is paying what, where, when, and why – in order to help our clients gain a more complete picture of pricing dynamics and develop the most effective travel management strategy to take advantage of them,” continued Mr. Sedky.
Americas Highlights
While only conservative increases in pricing are expected in North America (the U.S. and Canada), American Express Global Business Travel predicts Latin America’s strong economies and resulting consistent travel demand to likely result in robust price increases in that region in 2013.
In North America, despite uncertainty resulting from the upcoming U.S. presidential election and economic discord in Europe, steady trip demand and capacity discipline is expected to drive increases in business-class air fares of 1-3% for both short- and long-haul routes. Economy fares vary, with short-haul routes predicted to rise 2-4% and long-haul route pricing staying flat at (-1) -2%. Although limited numbers of hotel rooms are expected to be added in 2013, moderate occupancy growth is nevertheless expected to drive increases of 2–7% in mid-range hotel rates and 4–9% in upper-range hotel rates. Increased competition is predicted to drive car rental rates down, although the average daily rate is expected to rise slightly due to some increases in ancillary fees.
Although foreign carriers have added capacity throughout Latin America, the consolidation of some of the regional carriers along with strong economies and consistent demand are predicted to contribute to healthy air fare increases in the region in 2013. American Express Global Business Travel predicts short-haul economy fares to rise 7-10%, long-haul economy fares to rise 5-8%, short-haul business fares to rise 3-6%, and long-haul business fares to rise 4-7%. While the hotel construction pipeline remains tight, continued economic growth and middle-class consumer demand are predicted to drive increases in overall hotel rates in the mid single digits. The majority of this growth is expected to come from Brazil and Argentina.
Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) Highlights
The currency crisis surrounding the euro, austerity measures, and generally low growth expectations are predicted to drive only low single-digit air fare increases in EMEA in 2013. Those markets hardest hit by the euro zone crisis may even see declining fares. Spain, for example, is projected to experience decreases in long-haul economy fares of (-8) – (-5) %. There are outliers bucking the trend in the region, however, such as Russia (with long-haul economy fares projected to be up 5–7%) and Poland (up 3–5% for the same type of fare), which are distanced from the euro zone’s troubles. Similarly, South Africa is expected to see strong growth thanks to its positioning as the gateway to southern and western Africa and the natural resources based in those regions.
American Express Global Business Travel expects only conservative increases in corporate hotel rates, despite relatively constant hotel room capacity. The European hotel market in particular has seen little expansion as recent economic crisis has constrained investment. Russia, the Middle East, and Africa, however, are expected to see moderate growth. Car rental prices in EMEA are expected to be relatively flat in 2013, given the many ground transport alternatives – including new bicycle and car sharing programs, car services, and rail – in a European market that is economically anxious, environmentally-sensitive, and population-dense. Again, South Africa is expected to be an outlier when it comes to car rentals, with positive growth.
Asia Pacific (APAC) Highlights
The APAC region exhibits wide variation country to country. For example, Australia’s domestic travel market is very competitive, but demand from the natural resources sector is nevertheless expected to support moderate rate increases. India is projected to see the greatest fare increases in the region, of up to 8%, largely as a result of volatility in that market’s air industry. Meanwhile, in China, a decline in exports, slowing construction and manufacturing sectors, and impact from investments in Europe are expected to result in declines in business travel demand and pricing that is flat to slightly down overall. For domestic flights, in particular, competition from high-speed rail is predicted to exert pricing pressure on both business and economy segments in China.
Hotel rates in APAC, like airfare, are expected to differ widely at both the country and city levels. Within China, for instance, predictions reflect the fact that prices in Shanghai suffer from an excess of supply, while in Beijing demand is beginning to outstrip supply.
Tatiana is the news coordinator for TravelDailyNews Media Network (traveldailynews.gr, traveldailynews.com and traveldailynews.asia). Her role includes monitoring the hundreds of news sources of TravelDailyNews Media Network and skimming the most important according to our strategy.
She holds a Bachelor's degree in Communication & Mass Media from Panteion University of Political & Social Studies of Athens and she has been editor and editor-in-chief in various economic magazines and newspapers.
