In an insightful and often harrowing, yet optimistic article by futurist, Dr. Marvin Cetron, 10 global trends and their implications on…
In an insightful and often harrowing, yet optimistic article by futurist, Dr. Marvin Cetron, 10 global trends and their implications on the hospitality industry are reported in the cover story of the spring 2003 issue of the Hospitality Sales & Marketing Association International (HSMAI) Marketing Review magazine.
In Forecasting Trends Shaping the Future of the Hospitality Industry, Dr. Cetron of Forecasting International, Ltd., discusses in-depth the following 10 trends and their implications on the hospitality industry:
- The world`s population will double in the next 40 years.
- Growing international exposure includes a greater risk of terrorist attack.
- The population of the developed world is living longer.
- Growing integration of the global economy.
- Women`s equality movement beginning to lose its significance due largely to past successes.
- Tourism, vacation and travel will continue to grow in the next decade as in the 1990`s.
- Advances in transportation technology will speed travel and shipping both on land and in the air.
- The Internet is growing logarithmically and globally.
- Services are the fastest growing segment of the global economy.
- Time is becoming the world`s most precious commodity.
Dr. Cetron paints a clear and precise picture of global trends and how they will impact the future of the hospitality industry, states Ilsa Whittemore, executive editor of HSMAI Marketing Review. For sales and marketing professionals in the hospitality industry, HSMAI Marketing Review is a tremendous and invaluable resource for planning and developing marketing strategies, as well as understanding what is, and will be, in the minds of the traveling consumer.
Dr. Cetron addresses the fact that 2002 was the worst year in 20 years for hotels in almost every market. Following 9/11, the industry shed an estimated 6.6 million jobs worldwide; one hospitality worker in 12 wound up on the unemployment line in 2002; another 6 million jobs were lost from related businesses; two-thirds of the 760,000 jobs lost in American cities were in travel, tourism, and associated fields; the hoped-for recovery never materialized, and 2003 looks to be another stagnant year, with little growth in travel. Add to that the continued state of world affairs and it makes for very mixed prospects for the hospitality industry for the decade to come.
Among the many Implications for the Hospitality Industry cited in the article are:
- American tourism and vacation travel will grow more rapidly than the global average, both within the U.S. and to foreign destinations. In anticipation of this expanding market, hotel chains are fast building new capacity, both in the U.S. and abroad. Europe will remain an important profit center, in part because of growing exchanges among members of the expanding European Union, but also because it will continue to be a favorite destination for well-to-do Americans.
- Because they are gathering places for Americans, American-owned hotels and resorts are likely to be prime targets for future terrorism. Some of the most important security measures will be invisible to customers, but highly intrusive for staff. These may include comprehensive background checks for new hires, much as airports need to screen such behind-the-scenes personnel as baggage handlers and fuel-truck drivers. Disgruntled employees and former employees are the single greatest threat, because they are familiar with security procedures and weaknesses.
- Many future customers will value senior-oriented conveniences such as faucet handles that can be operated conveniently by arthritic hands, larger signs with easier-to-read type, fire and security systems that flash lights for the hard-of-hearing plus sound an alarm for others. Off-season tourism by seniors will help to smooth out the annual cycle in cash flow for hotels, motels, resorts, and other travel businesses.
- Faster and more efficient modes of travel will reduce the cost of vacations and business trips, further increasing demand for hotel accommodations. Whenever economical rail transport begins to replace short-haul airlines in the U.S., it will stimulate the market for accommodations in regional hubs.
- Anything hotels can do to save time for their customers will encourage repeat visits. Any delay or perceived inadequacy of service that costs customers time will send them to another hotel chain. This is particularly true of under-40 customers, who make few allowances for other people`s problems.
- As Net-based work-at-home programs eliminate the need to work in a central location, frequent small meetings between team members will become an important part of corporate life. Many of those one- and two-day get-togethers will be held at the company`s regional offices. However, others may take place at local hotels, where key workers can focus on critical tasks in more comfortable, relaxing surroundings. This could be a significant new market for hotels in small and medium-sized cities around the United States.
- Many future investments will go to improve broadband and wireless access for hotel guests, to provide PDA links to home networks, and to add large, flat-screen HDTV to rooms. GPS systems will tell drivers exactly how to reach the hotel or resort, with added reports on travel conditions. These services cannot be seen as profit centers; instead, prices will be kept low, to attract business to other facilities.
Other articles and columns published in the spring 2003 edition of HSMAI Marketing Review are:
- Hotel Safety: Consumer Demand Presents a Marketing Opportunity
- Balancing High-Tech and High-Touch in Hospitality
- International Travel to the United States: Excerpts from Tourism Works for America 11th Annual Edition 2002
- Putting Out the Welcome Mat for Pet Lovers
- Training: The Key to Success in the Private Special Events Market
- Trade Show Leads: Lost and Found
Theodore is the Co-Founder and Managing Editor of TravelDailyNews Media Network; his responsibilities include business development and planning for TravelDailyNews long-term opportunities.
