NEW YORK, PricewaterhouseCoopers’ Hospitality & Leisure Practice’s newly released travel forecasts for the 2002-2003 holiday season…
NEW YORK, PricewaterhouseCoopers’ Hospitality & Leisure Practice’s newly released travel forecasts for the 2002-2003 holiday season predict that occupancies during the entire Thanksgiving week of 2002 will exceed 2001 occupancies by 2.2 occupancy points and equal 2000 levels. Peak occupancy for the week is forecast to be 64 percent on the Friday following Thanksgiving. For the four-day Thanksgiving weekend, the average occupancy is forecast to be 52 percent. This is an improvement of 2.1 occupancy points from the same weekend last year and 0.7 occupancy points above 2000 levels reported by Smith Travel Research (STR).
Average occupancies during the two-week period including the Christmas and New Year holidays will be approximately 1.4 occupancy points above comparable 2001 levels reported by STR. Occupancies are expected to peak on the Friday and Saturday following Christmas at 56 percent and 58 percent respectively, and on New Year’s Eve at 60 percent.
Airfare discounts and hotel promotions have increased the incentive for Americans to travel this holiday season, observes Bjorn Hanson, Ph.D., global industry leader, PricewaterhouseCoopers Hospitality & Leisure Practice. That said, even with an improved holiday season, we will not see a return to lodging demand levels that we saw in 2000. Lodging demand in the fourth quarter of 2002 will be comparable to 1999 levels.
PwC forecasts that the average daily rate (ADR) over the Thanksgiving weekend this year will exceed 2001 levels by 2.7 percent, reflecting some recovery from deep discounting last year. The ADR over the two-week period including Christmas and New Year will surpass 2001 levels by 3.3 percent. Nevertheless, ADRs during this holiday period will still be below comparable 2000 rates by 3.6 percent.
For the fourth quarter of 2002, PwC forecasts that the average daily rate will be approximately $83, only 4.0 percent above prior-year levels, but still lagging behind the $86 rate reported by STR for the same period of 2000 by 3.9 percent.
Even with an improved holiday season, PwC does not forecast a return to lodging demand levels of 2000. Hotel occupancies in the fourth quarter will reach 54.0 percent, an improvement over the 52.6 percent occupancy in the fourth quarter of 2001, but still 6.5 percent below the 57.8 percent occupancy in the same period in 2000.
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