Thailand should see an upsurge in visitor arrivals over the latter half of the year…
Thailand should see an upsurge in visitor arrivals over the latter half of the year despite the rise in global oil prices, putting total tourist numbers for 2004 at nearly 11.5 million, according to a report published today by the KASIKORN Research Centre.While recognising that a number of negative factors had affected Thailand`s tourism industry throughout 2004, notably the emergence of avian flu and violence in the southern border region, the report stressed that the fundamentals of the nation`s tourism industry remained strong.
The report attributed this strength in part to exemplary cooperation between the public and private sectors in working to promote tourism.However, it also warned that the public and private sectors would have to brace themselves for tough times ahead, given the soaring cost of travel occasioned by rising oil prices, and said that cooperation would have to continue if this obstacle was to be overcome.Such tourism promotion measures would also help give the country greater financial stability in the face of volatile global price markets. The first trimester of the year saw around 2.87 visitor arrivals in Thailand, up only 0.8 percent on the same period in 2003.
However, the research centre forecast that the second trimester would see around 2.55 visitors, up 75.9 percent from the second quarter of last year, when Thailand`s tourism sector was severely weakened by concerns over Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS). This would mean a total of 5.42 million visitors for the first half of the year, a year-on-year rise of 26.1 percent. The report also forecast continuing tourism growth for the second half of the year, with expansion estimated at broadly similar levels to 2003. Despite the growing unpopularity of long haul tourism caused by the rise of oil prices, this was unlikely to have much effect on the upcoming high season in Thailand, as most tourists from
America and Europe had already purchased their airline tickets.
At the same time, tour companies had adjusted their tour programmes in accordance with the changing situation, and were now focusing more on cheaper travel options. This meant that the latter half of the year was likely to see around 5.99 million visitor arrivals, with expansion running at around 5.0 percent, putting total tourist numbers for the year as a whole at around 11.41 million, up 14.0 percent from last year. This meant that Thailand would gain around Bt350 billion in tourism revenue in 2004, an increase of 16.7 percent.
Turning to advice for the tourism industry, the research centre advocated a greater emphasis on niche markets with high purchasing power, such as incentive tourism, health tourism and the honeymoon market.
Theodore is the Co-Founder and Managing Editor of TravelDailyNews Media Network; his responsibilities include business development and planning for TravelDailyNews long-term opportunities.
