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Hotel business activity cools over summer

HIP's six-month growth rate, which has historically confirmed the turning points in U.S. hotel business activity, posted a negative rate of 0.6% in August, following a positive rate of 0.7% in July.

DURHAM, NEW HAMPSHIRE USA –  Business activity in U.S. hotels declined to a reading of 112.5 in August according to the latest reading of the Hotel Industry’s Pulse (HIP) indicator. e-forecasting.com‘s HIP – a composite indicator that gauges monthly overall business conditions in the U.S. hotel industry – fell by 0.5%  in August after a decline of 0.4% in July. The index is set to equal 100 in 2005.        

HIP’s six-month growth rate, which has historically confirmed the turning points in U.S. hotel business activity, posted a negative rate of 0.6% in August, following a positive rate of 0.7% in July. This compares to a long-term annual growth rate of 3%, the same as the 40-year average annual growth rate of the industry’s gross domestic product.        

The probability of the hotel industry being in recession, which is detected in real-time from HIP with the help of sophisticated statistical techniques, registered 30.6% in August, up from 21.2% reported in July. When this recession-warning gauge is near or passes the threshold probability of 50%, the U.S. hotel industry has entered a recession.    

“The latest data, including revisions, show that business activity for US hoteliers is on a declining trend in the last five months” said Maria Sogard, CEO of e­forecasting.com.”

Only one of the three demand and supply indicators of current business activity that constitute Hotel Industry’s Pulse (HIP) Index had a positive contribution to its change in August: Spending on Hotels; The two of the three indicators of current business activity which had a negative or zero contribution to HIP’s change in August were Hotel Jobs; Hotel Capacity;

“In the last twelve months – August 2013 to August 2014 – overall economic activity, measured by e-forecasting.com’s monthly U.S. GDP – rose by 1.8%. Over the same period, economic activity in U.S. Hotels, measured by HIP, increased by 2.1%” Maria added.

Vicky Karantzavelou
Co-Founder & Chief Editor - TravelDailyNews Media Network | Website

Vicky is the co-founder of TravelDailyNews Media Network where she is the Editor-in Chief. She is also responsible for the daily operation and the financial policy. She holds a Bachelor's degree in Tourism Business Administration from the Technical University of Athens and a Master in Business Administration (MBA) from the University of Wales.

She has many years of both academic and industrial experience within the travel industry. She has written/edited numerous articles in various tourism magazines.

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