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This report presents the 2010 update of EUROCONTROL Long-Term Forecast of IFR flight in Europe up to 2030. It focuses on developments after 2016; traffic evolution between now and 2016 is discussed in the EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast published in September 2010. This forecast replaces the EUROCONTROL
Long-Term Forecast issued in November 2008.
The forecast uses four scenarios to explore the future of the aviation and the risks that lie ahead: A: Global Growth, C: Regulated Growth, D: Fragmenting World, and E: Resource Limits. They produce different levels of traffic and follow different paths of growth according to their storylines and mix of characteristics factored into the forecast. Scenario C has been constructed as the ‘most-likely’ continuing in current trends, scenario E investigates the consequences of peak oil1 on aviation.
In the ‘most-likely’ scenario C of the LTF10, there will be 16.9 million IFR movements in Europe2 in 2030, 1.8 times more than in 2009. The range of the forecast scenarios is between 13.1 and 20.9 million flights in 2030, 1.4-2.2 times the traffic in 2009. The growth will average 1.6%-3.9% annually (2.8% in the ‘most-likely’), it will be faster in the early years, stronger in Eastern Europe and for arrivals/departures to/from outside Europe than for intra-European flights.
Future air traffic will be limited by capacity at the airports, 0.7-5.0 million flights will not be
accommodated in 2030, 5%-19% of the demand. The congestion is now lower than in the forecast two years ago. The recent drop in traffic has given the system some extra years to react and adapt but once the limits are reached the number of unaccommodated flights increases quickly. Congested airports create pressure on the flow of operations in the network and will exacerbate delays.
Even with airport capacity restrictions airports will grow. In 2030, there will be 13-34 airports as big as the top 7 are now. Some of the faster growing East-European airports will join the top 25. European hubs will be faced with competition from hubs outside Europe, primarily in the Middle-East.
Oil and fuel prices are expected to continue to grow and play an important role in airline economics. They are likely to push for an increase in costs of travel for passengers. Scenario E: Resource Limits explores a particularly difficult path for the aviation with peak in oil production reached in 2020.
For a number of reasons (more business opportunities in emerging economies, saturation of intra-European markets, green thinking and alternative modes of travel, etc.) passengers will travel on average farther in 2030 than they do now. They will also fly in larger aircraft, especially on long-haul. On short-haul, high speed train (HST) will continue to compete with the air transport. New or improved HST connections on some 40 city-pairs will decrease the demand for flights by a little over 0.5%, but the effect will be more significant locally. The current forecast finishes by around 1.6-1.9 million flights below the LTF08. The previous LTF08 was prepared at the top of a cycle and was based on expectations of continuing strong growth in the medium-term. The drop in traffic in the last two years and slow recovery shifts the forecast traffic volumes back by about 5 years.
Long-Term Forecast here!
Theodore is the Co-Founder and Managing Editor of TravelDailyNews Media Network; his responsibilities include business development and planning for TravelDailyNews long-term opportunities.
